Minimum Wage, Minimum Growth

Minimum Wage, Minimum GrowthPhoto by Zhanjiang Chen on Unsplash

Raising the minimum wage leads to slower job and wage growth for younger, low-wage workers

Before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, a host of cities, counties, and states moved to raise the minimum wage. Proponents argued that a higher minimum wage was needed to provide workers with enough income to afford a living wage — the amount required to maintain a normal standard of living. They viewed an increase in the minimum wage as an economic stimulus of sorts, placing more disposable income in the hands of low-income earners. Their hope is that a wage increase would help to lower employee turnover and reduce training costs. Critics claim that a higher minimum wage results in lower employment and reduced hours for existing employees. They believe an increased minimum wage creates a powerful incentive for large employers to automate jobs (witness the kiosks at McDonald’s), while driving companies with low profit margins out of business. Furthermore, they point to a lack of evidence that minimum wages are effective at reducing overall poverty rates or poverty rates among workers.

Amidst this debate, the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a private, not-for-profit, non-partisan, independent research organization that has studied policy-related issues of employment and unemployment since 1945, states that recent working papers indicate “the pass-through effect of minimum wage increases on prices is smaller than previously thought; small raises in the minimum wage lead to slower wage growth for low-wage workers; and that the minimum wage reduces job growth over a period of several years with the effects being strongest for younger workers and for those in industries with a higher proportion of low-wage workers.”

Local and State Minimum Wage Ordinances

Most initiatives to raise the minimum wage are at the local and state level.

Leading the charge is Seattle at $16 per hour for large employers and $15 per hour for small companies. Seattle is joined by Montgomery County, Maryland; New York City; and Washington, D. C., which have established a minimum wage of $15 per hour (effective January 1, 2020). The University of California-Berkeley Labor Center’s Inventory of U.S. City and County Minimum Wage Ordinances reveals that local governments with minimum wage ordinances are highly concentrated in eight blue states — California (36), New Mexico (5), Illinois (2), Maine (2), Maryland (2), Minnesota (2), Colorado (1), Washington (1) — and the District of Columbia.

The Economic Policy Institute Minimum Wage Tracker indicates that 27 states and the District of Columbia have changed their minimum wage law since 2014 (along with their current minimum wage and sub-minimum tipped wage: Alaska ($10.19/$10.19), Arizona ($12.00/$9.00), Arkansas ($10.00/$2.63), California ($13.00/$13.00), Colorado ($12.00/$8.98), Connecticut ($11.00/$6.38), Delaware ($9.25/$2.23), Hawaii ($10.10/$10.10), Illinois ($10.00/$6.00), Maine ($12.00/$6.00), Maryland ($11.00/$3.63), Massachusetts ($12.75/$4.95), Michigan ($9.65/$3.67), Minnesota ($10.00/$10.00), Missouri ($9.45/$4.73), Nebraska ($9.00/$2.13), Nevada ($9.00/$9.00), New Jersey ($11.00/$3.13), New Mexico ($9.00/$2.35), New York ($11.80/$7.85), Oregon ($12.00/$12.00), Rhode Island ($10.50/$3.89), South Dakota ($9.30/$4.65), Vermont ($10.96/$5.48), Washington ($13.50/$13.50), Washington, D. C. ($15.00/$5.00), and West Virginia ($8.75/$2.63).

Seven states have no minimum wage law or have in place a minimum wage below the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour — Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Wyoming. The federal minimum wage applies in all of these states.

Cost of living plays an important role in creating industry and region differentials in minimum wage rates. For example, Oregon’s minimum wage law establishes a separate minimum wage rate for the Portland Urban Growth Boundary area and designated non-urban counties. New York law establishes separate minimum wage rates for New York City, suburban counties, and the rest of the state. Simultaneously, New York’s minimum wage law allows for variations by industry. The fast-food industry started at $10.50 in New York City and $9.75 for the rest of the state, both gradually rising to $15 per hour over a period of several years.

Another common feature is indexing for inflation, which calls for making annual adjustments in the minimum wage based on changes in the Consumer Price Index (states are measured against the national average, which is set at 100). This occurs in eighteen different states and the District of Columbia.

Richard Mulligan | The ED Advisor
Source: World Population Review, 2020

This hodge-podge of higher minimum wages is a reflection of several factors, not least of which are cost of living and political philosophy. It is no coincidence that the highest minimum wages are most often found in jurisdictions with the highest costs for housing, food, healthcare, and other expenses (see chart above). Nor is it a coincidence that the most expensive jurisdictions to live in are Democratic strongholds.

National Minimum Wage

Several groups advocate for raising the national minimum wage to $15 per hour — Campaign for America’s Future, Economic Policy Institute, FairShare, Interfaith Worker Justice, Let Justice Roll Living Wage Campaign, National Employment Law Project, Partnership for Working Families, Reclaim the American Dream, Restaurant Opportunities Centers United, and United for a Fair Economy. These proponents are primarily concerned about providing a living wage for workers, reducing poverty, and wage inequality.

Opposing their efforts are major business organizations such as the National Association of Manufacturers, National Federation of Independent Business, National Restaurant Association, National Retail Federation, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce. They argue that a national minimum wage of $15 per hour leads to increased labor costs and tough choices, causing employers to reduce jobs, reduce hours, or reduce benefits.

Lost in our political discourse are the implications of a one-size-fits all approach that creates unintended consequences for the U.S. and its tapestry of economically diverse states. It’s one thing to implement a $15 minimum wage for low-wage workers in Hawaii, which has a cost of living index of 192.9; another thing entirely to implement a $15 minimum wage in Mississippi, where the cost of living index is 86.1* The impact on lower cost of living states, their industries, and their employees, is broader and far more disruptive.

Weighing in on the discussion is the Congressional Budget Office, which estimates that raising the minimum wage to $15 from its current $7.25 could cost 1.3 million jobs, while increasing wages for 17 million workers.

Despite the state and region differentials in minimum wage, and the prospect of permanent job loss, the Democratic-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed H. R. 582 – Raise the Wage Act to boost the national minimum wage to $15 per hour in a recorded vote of 231-199. The bill also eliminates the separate minimum wage requirements for disabled, tipped and newly-hired employees (under 20 years of age), bringing them into line with regular employees over a 7-year period. Political observers believe the Senate is unlikely to take up the bill, and President Trump has indicated he’s prepared to veto the legislation.


Minimum wage increases generate mixed outcomes. A higher minimum wage increases worker purchasing power and stimulates consumer demand. On the flip side, a higher minimum wage discourages employers from hiring low-skill, low-wage workers, which leads to slower wage growth — particularly for younger workers — and creates an incentive to replace human labor with automation technology. To a large extent, the gains and losses attributed to a higher minimum wage offset one another.

Perhaps minimum wage federalism offers a better answer.

Why Federalism Matters opens with this statement:

What do we want from federalism?” asked the late Martin Diamond in a famous essay written thirty years ago. His answer was that federalism — a political system that permits a large measure of regional self-rule — presumably gives the rulers and the ruled a “school of their citizenship,” “a preserver of their liberties,” and “a vehicle for flexible response to their problems. These features, broadly construed, are said to reduce conflict between diverse communities, even as a federated polity affords inter-jurisdictional competition that encourages innovations and constrains the overall growth of government” (The Brookings Institution, 2005).

Democrats and other proponents of a higher national minimum wage of $15 per hour are pushing for a level of forced uniformity that ignores the dramatic effects that a “cookie-cutter” minimum wage policy has on employers and workers in different states across the country. As such, state governments and municipalities should be given the flexibility to continue experimenting with their own minimum wage policies. This allows other jurisdictions to learn from their successes and failures.

As an added benefit, decentralizing the minimum wage issue enables the federal government to focus on more important fiscal obligations. For example, COVID-19 has pushed the 2020 National Deficit to $2.74 trillion through June. Second-tier financial issues, like the minimum wage, should be delegated to lower levels of government.

If reducing poverty is the desired policy outcome, there is compelling evidence that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is a far more effective tool:

Each one percent in a state supplement to the federal EITC reduces poverty rates by one percent. (It also provides an incentive to seek employment, since the credit can only be claimed on earned income)” (Economic Policies Institute, 2020).

Wouldn’t it be nice if the U.S. Congress chose to get the federal government’s fiscal house in order before attempting to dictate to the people about minimum wage policy? Wouldn’t it be nice if the U.S. Congress worked smarter, and not just harder?


*Editor’s Note: A worker earning $15 per hour in Honolulu, Hawaii is equivalent to earning $6 per hour in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, once allowances are made for the difference in cost of living.

Business Retention and Expansion

Business Retention and ExpansionPhoto by 123RF

Economist Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) is best known for his economic theories on business cycles, capitalism, and for introducing the concept of entrepreneurship. In Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (1942), Schumpeter coins the term “creative destruction,” which describes the “process of industrial mutation that continuously revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” The term easily applies to economic development organizations (EDOs) and their approach to business retention and expansion.

Where Are Jobs Being Created?

Economic development leaders understand the importance of new and existing businesses. They are keenly interested in existing companies, which create 75 percent of new private-sector jobs. They are also attentive to the 25 percent of new private-sector jobs that come from the churn of new startups minus business closures (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020).

Employment From Establishment Dynamics, 2010-2018
Richard Mulligan | The ED Advisor Employment From Establishment Dynamics, 2010-20218

Click on graphic to enlarge

EDO concerns about existing businesses and employment are reflected in the implementation of business retention and expansion programs. Business Retention & Expansion International, in partnership with Eric Canada, CEO, Blane, Canada, Ltd., offer the following definition for such activities:

“In economic development, business retention and expansion is a program designed to strengthen the connection between companies and the community while encouraging each business to continue to grow in the community. Through direct interactions, events, and research, the program seeks to gain insight into business practices, planned future actions, as well as the challenge of targeted companies. Then, to turn this ‘business intelligence’ into value added services, programs, and/or products that address individual and shared company opportunities and problems” (2018).

Properly executed, business retention and expansion programs cultivate a strong business climate and create satisfied CEOs that become effective cheerleaders and tireless goodwill ambassadors for the community. At the same time, business prospects evaluate the community’s economic suitability and receptivity for business through conversations with these same CEOs.

The business retention and expansion toolbox includes business surveys, business walks, industry roundtables and focus groups, and other activities. The level of community engagement adopted by EDOs is a reflection of their social, economic, and cultural environment.

Business Surveys

One technique for soliciting feedback about a community’s business climate is the implementation of business surveys. This requires EDOs to build a database of existing businesses and determine the types of businesses that will be approached (e.g., high-wage firms, firms in select geographic areas, or firms in targeted industry clusters). Hard copies of the surveys are mailed to local businesses and recipients are given two options to provide feedback — online through a SurveyMonkey link or completion of a printed copy of the survey. The information collected protects the confidentiality of respondents and the survey results are reported in the aggregate, helping EDOs to better serve the needs of existing employers.

Business Visitations

Complementing business surveys are volunteer- and economic developer-led business visitations. Visits are focused on interviews with C-level executives to learn how the community might help their company. The interview solicits information about the firm’s plans for expansion or relocation, which is helpful in identifying growth opportunities and at-risk companies. Follow-up is critical and can take the form of a letter or phone call that responds to issues raised during the interview.

Capturing and analyzing the data obtained from business surveys and visitations is an important component of business retention and expansion programs. A variety of software packages are available to help manage survey data and provide insights into local businesses and their economic potential, including:

Bludot

Bludot offers modern, cloud-based software that allows users to view and manage all businesses in the community with one platform. A relatively new product on the market, Bludot is now live at 14 cities located in California, Florida, and Maryland. Bludot recently offered 3 months free usage of their software for any cities that want to support and engage with their businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm has received funding from the Alchemist Accelerator and GovTech Fund, is a startup partner with City Innovate, and a member of Stanford StartX.

ExecutivePulse

ExecutivePulse is promoted as a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) solution for economic developers, public-sector agencies, and community stakeholders. The product can be used for business recruitment, foreign-direct investment, business retention and expansion, entrepreneurial development, workforce development, and related initiatives. Recent case studies listed on the firm’s website include the Province of Albert, Canada; Birmingham Business Alliance; British Columbia Economic Development Association; Fresno County Economic Development Corporation; Philadelphia Works; Cornerstone Alliance (Southwest Michigan); Province of Ontario, Canada; Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; and San Bernardino County, California.

Gazelle.ai

Gazelle.ai is an “AI-Powered Business Intelligence Growth Platform” designed to identify fast-growth companies for business development. Extremely useful for business attraction and recruitment, the platform also has the ability to identify growth companies in the EDOs own backyard. Client resources include articles, infographics, press releases, podcasts, and webinars.

Synchronist Suite

Developed almost 20 years ago, Synchronist Suite is the granddaddy of crowdsourced economic development software. The platform revolves around business interviews, interview validation, objective analysis, predictive analysis, and key performance indicators. Synchronist provides insight into customer relationship management; each company’s value, growth potential, level of risk, and satisfaction; quality of a market’s retail, education, health care, arts/culture, and other local services; talent development; project tracking; research; and training. The “Synchronist User’s Forum” is held annually to network, share best practices, conduct how-to sessions, and discuss ongoing research projects.

Business Walks

Business walks provide a day dedicated to learning more about local businesses through face-to-face interviews on the business’ turf. They allow teams of community leaders to canvass multiple businesses in one day, covering more ground than traditional business visitations. The teams utilize short, streamlined surveys of predetermined questions to identify issues and bring resources to bear on those issues, and to diagnose firms on the brink of expansion or those at risk. Successful business walks are held in communities throughout the United States and Canada.

Regardless of technique, business retention and expansion programs work best when integrated into the EDOs economic development strategy, business attraction and recruitment, and entrepreneurial development initiatives.

Industry Roundtables and Focus Groups

Anatalio Ubalde, CEO, SizeUp and GIS Planning Inc., has written a thought-provoking article that identifies 10 business retention and expansion innovation trends. He considers industry roundtables and focus groups a superior method of collaborative problem solving. He makes the argument that “the business survey should die,” and outlines their shortcomings when it comes to dealing with the “acting as fast as business” expectations of modern companies. In his opinion, business surveys are not agile enough to anticipate fundamental marketplace shifts.

“The business survey should die.”

Anatalio Ubalde, CEO, SizeUp and GIS Planning Inc.

Business walks help to expand the retention and expansion footprint, but require that EDOs follow up quickly to address the issues raised by businesses. If EDOs are incapable of responding quickly, Anatalio believes they are better off not proceeding with a business walk.

Deliver Direct Value

Ubalde finds there is an inherent conflict between EDO job creation metrics, businesses that are focused on increasing productivity and reducing labor costs with technology, and workforce development. Going forward, the focus of business retention and expansion needs to change. If EDO and local business meetings are to be successful, economic developers have to deliver direct value to local businesses. Delivering direct value means viewing business relationships as a two-way street. Instead of gathering business intelligence and responding in-kind, Ubalde contends that EDOs should use Internet-delivered technology to proactively deliver assistance to a broader constituency of local businesses. This takes the form of data and information that helps them better understand company performance, find customers, and improve operations.


A market-driven economy is going to produce a certain amount of “churn” or “creative destruction” over time. In fact, strong economies are characterized by high rates of churn and high rates of economic growth. The challenge for economic development professionals is determining how to help businesses survive and grow in the midst of inevitable change, while mining business intelligence data.


Editor’s Note: “Beyond the Survey: How EDOs Add Value Through Business Retention and Expansion” explains how EDOs are moving from basic survey and visitation models to more comprehensive, value-added models. The paper outlines the various ways EDOs are serving businesses, measuring their activities, and promoting them in the community.

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